"Operation Paintball Island" a scam?
Many of you may be aware of "Operation Paintball Island". You may not know it by name, but you know it as that "Million dollar woodsball event". A lot of people are hyped about going to this, but it reminded me of an event that was hyped with a $1Mil prize over 5 years ago called "Da Big Rubout". That was a scam, and after running the logistics, the numbers, and the terms of this event, I believe that the "OPI" event is also a scam.
Proving this won't be short, you've been warned. But if you intend on plunking down a lot of money to go to an event, you should be aware of what you're getting yourself involved with. So let's begin with the information that we have for the event. A website with a web-bot baited but unlinked to anything else front page but accessible pages inside. A listing of prizes, a "debriefing", a registration page, a Q&A and a "terms and conditions" page. As of this typing, the rules are not available on the main event site, but a list of 31 "rules" have been published on a forum hosted by one of the event sponsors (RAP 4).
We also know what the event staff have said on the forums, which is incredibly minimal. The qualifiers (phase 1) is in the US, and is a 3 day / 2 night event. The finals (phase 2) is on an island in Brazil, and is going to be a "week long" And some of the event structure has been answered in the Q&A section, but we'll get to that later. For the most part, the OPI staff have been surprisingly tight lipped about directly answering some key questions on the forums.
So much of what the pre-registered players have to do is read the information given, and piece together what the tournament is going to be like. Unfortunately, most players see the prize and never read what it's going to take to get there. Which is why the long deconstruction is necessary. Let's begin with the base announcement of the event.
(source)
So what we know so far, the event will cost $1299 after May, or $899 before. They also say in the website that they will include paint, free "CO2" (nothing about compressed air) and "some equipment" for the game. A lot of people have already jumped on the bandwagon saying that the money spent includes all the paint you're going to need. But then a further reading of the so-called "debriefing" on the main event website gives more insight.
(source)
So now we know all about the "all paint provided". Although the information about this is patchy, one of several anomalies on the website. They say 250 paintballs a day, but in their "Q&A" section they say that each player gets 500 paintballs total. According to the debriefing, you should be getting 750 paintballs total. They also say in the Q&A section that they provide CO2, "HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO MISSIONS OR PLACED IN OPEN AREA VULERNABLE TO ATTACK. AS A RESULT, YOU SHOULD BRING A GOOD SUPPLY OF AIR OF YOUR OWN TO GET YOU STARTED" They also state that the event is 3 days, 2 nights "living in the woods". It can be assumed that the finals will be a week of the same.
Plus they've stated all the resources you get for $1299. MRE's, Water, all the TP they think you'll need, a laptop for the team, zip drives, and several other resources split among your team. Each team consists of 10-12 players, but there's no commentary about how that's going to work. Will teams only be able to field 10 players, or 12 players? It's never said in the rules.
A lot of people are already speculating about cheating. And the OPI people already answered that. they have four points of how they will stop it, but here's the one that got me reading more.
Unless they've got some of the best sensors in the world, or technology that can tell one type of impact from another, this isn't going to fly. If you fall on your belly or back up into a tree, sensor fires and you're out. Oh, and by the language, bouncers count if you hit the strike area.
And just by reading the language of what's available, I get a feeling that the paintball crowd is going to be REALLY angry when they figure out that once you're hit, you're done for the event. Not the mission, the EVENT. It's written all over the site, if you watch how the language is used.
(source)
And the only four points in the rulebook written about eliminated players are as follows :
Source
It's not said outright anywhere, but the language of the debriefing, the Q&A and all the other information available implies that team members hit by paint will be "eliminated" from the game. Not from a mission, but from the GAME. What's been published is what you see above, and a brief mentioning of wounds in the Q&A section. And by saying "a sole surviving member" it gives me more than just the slight impression that when you're gone, you're gone. Plus the language of missions leads me to believe that when you're hit, you're done.
Then I see a logistical problem as well. The game mechanics are 22 hours on, 2 hours off. It runs from 7 PM to 5 PM, with no game stoppage before that. Meaning that you are a live player for 22 hours a day, if you're sleeping, if your going to the bathroom, if you're taking your medications or if you're getting medical attention, you're live. There seems to be no "safe area" built into the field of play. Again, from the information given :
(source)
So they supply MRE's. But if everywhere is a hot spot, including your base, there's no guarantee you can eat them without risking losing your eyes when you lift your goggles/mask. If there's no "goggles off" area, it's unsafe to eat food or prepare it. Unless you play without a face mask, and that's not much better. Hope you like sleeping in your Spectras.
Just this alone has me more than a little skeptical. There is no official rule sheet on the main website, but they're set up to take money with several credit cards and paypal! I know a lot of you members don't remember the old tournaments back in the day, but there's a reason that the rulebook is printed months in advance. Do you take your car into the shop, give them $500 down and a promise of another $800 and say "Just fix what's wrong." NO! You get an estimate, you learn what's wrong with it, you know what's going to happen! The same think applies here! And frankly, anyone who's going to take my money before they show me what I'm buying scares me.
The lack of published rules scares me more. We all know that people bend the rules. We also know they break the rules with frightening regularity. But there's only 31 rules, and none of them cover things like "no climbing trees" or "no shooting computers" or "you may not take paintballs off of eliminated players" or "no physical contact". They do say the chrony limit is 300 FPS, thankfully. And they have a rule about urinating on the field (it's not allowed, btw). But pretty much beyond gun velocity, anything goes. There are no published "nuts and bolts" rules that actually describe game procedure, which is vital to know how the event is going to be run. And when you get 1200 people in one place, someone will have a far more devious mind than you do.
1200 people? In one event? I'm ahead of myself. Let's talk about financing this thing. A game like this is going to have to make one heck of a pretty penny to cover $1,000,000 for a grand prize, right? So let's play a game called "follow the money".
I'm going to be fair. I'm aware that many other sports use a similar kind of prize payout as this event is proposing. Motocross, for example, it's routine for the prize money to come from the participants that arrive on site that morning. As such, a "guaranteed top prize" is not guaranteed unless specific conditions happen. So let's break down the best case scenario for the OPI event.
At $1299 per player (forget the pre-pay discount, I want to give them the full benefit of the doubt here) they need about 770 people total to pony up to just barely cover the $1 mil. So that's roughly 64 teams of 12 each, and that will just about cover the grand prize. That's over the entire series of "phase 1".
They also say that each qualifier winner gets $50,000. So If they have 10 qualifiers like they say they want, that's $500,000. That's another 38 people per event.
So they need at least 38 people per qualifier to meet the qualifier prize (3-4 teams per qualifier), and another 77 average per qualifier on top of that to cover the grand prize (77 X 10 = 770, so another 6-7 full teams) so each qualifier will need a minimum of 115 players (9-12 teams roughly) to just barely cover promised prize money at the top end price of $1299! (at a minimum of 10 qualifiers, the rules say they can go up to 20, but let's stick to 10)
Do you think that 115 people will cough up $1299 to possibly be waxed in the first 30 minutes of play, then sit on their tails for the rest of the weekend? Do you think that 115 different people will show up 10 times, even when you go around the country? Do you think more than that would do it? Do you think they'll get the 100 teams (1000 - 1200 people) maximum every qualifier? They have the event formatted for 100 teams per event (source), so they're prepared for 1200 people per event, so they say.
But before I get further into that, let's talk about building the "sets" they want. They promise that they'll have "Watch Towers, Storage Facilities, Abandoned Vehicles (military and civilian), Military Compounds, Medical Facilities, Ammunition Facilities, Junk Yards, Communications Facilities, Abandoned Living Shelters, Garages, Boat Houses, Abandoned Prisons, Abandoned Airports/Helicopter Pads" And all of that, short of going to an island or parcel of land that was a military base, has to be built. And that takes even more money. Money up front. They may have some very powerful backers, I don't know.
PLUS the bonus stuff : "During the tournament, various tools and vehicles will be used. Some of these tools/vehicles used will include: Metal Detectors, Infrared Security Devices, Shovels, Power Tools, All Terrain Vehicles (ATV’s), Jet Ski’s, Motorized Rafts" And by the language, this may be in both the qualifiers and in the finals. More money up front, plus the potential problem of letting untrained people use things like ATV's, power tools, Jet Ski's and anything with the potential to injure a person. And all these will be in play with live players. Imagine the disaster of someone using a power tool, then suddenly getting shot at.
Then, on the main website, they also state that every player will be issued several things "depending on availability" basis. An FRS radio, a zip drive, MRE's and water, and so on. Each team gets a computer, 4 mines (2 pressure sensitive, 2 claymores), 3 smoke grenades, IR detectors and so on. That takes more money, considering that they expect the qualifiers and the finals to have a maximum of 100 teams and 1000-1200 players PER EVENT. (source), so that's 100 laptops, up to 1200 zip drives, 200 claymores, 300 grenades and so on for each of the qualifiers, AND for the finals, and so on.
And, HOW are they going to get 100 teams to play in the finals when there's only 2-20 qualifiers? Simple. You can register to play in the finals even if you don't win a qualifier. "The total entry fee during registration period two (for the finals on the island) is $2999.00. Players who register for the tournament during registration period two are registering to play in Phase Two (the finals) only." "Players who do not advance to Phase Two automatically may register for Phase Two after being eliminated from Phase One." (source)
Meaning that you play the qualifier, and if you don't make it you can just cough up $2999 per person and play in the finals anyway. That's over and above the $1299 you paid to play in the first one. and depending on how you read it, you may have to play a qualifier to pay to play in the finals, and you can't play in only the finals.
Ok, so 10 teams get a free ride (Free entry, and according to the site, will travel for free to the island but no mention of how they get to Brazil). The other 90 expected teams spend $2999 per player to play in the finals, AFTER paying $1299 to play in a qualifier. That's another $35,988 per 12 player team, $3,238,920 if 90 teams suck it up and go for it.
So let's review. IF they max out ten events, and I MEAN EVERY QUALIFIER EVENT, they get $1299 from each player, up to 100 teams (1200 players) per event, $1,558,800 per event in raw earnings. $15,588,000 for 10 events. Then another $3,238,920 for the finals. $18,826,920 of profit. So what do you get for your money?
The Q&A talks about the event length, 3 days 2 nights. the finals are a "week long", so a week would be 7 days 6 nights, but let's focus on the qualifiers. They issue each player a set amount of resources for their $1299. 500 rounds per player (or 250 a day, depending on which page you're looking at on the site), 9 MRE's, 3 gallons of water (the recommended daily input for an average, healthy adult is 13 cups, 104 fluid ounces or .8 gallons of water per day, and that's if you're not being active!) And without a comprehensive rulebook, there's no way to tell if you can bring your own water or resources other than more "Co2".
Just thinking of it now, since you can't bring pressurized air tanks on an airplane, how do you bring more Co2 to Brazil? And while I'm on gear, on the registration form they ask what caliber of paintball you want. So I get a feeling that .40 / .44 caliber paintballs will be used.
So, lemme see here, 1200 players per event tops using 500 balls a piece, 600,000 paintballs of varying size (300 cases of paint, and at a penny a ball thats $6,000 of paint, assuming they can get it for a penny a ball!), 7200 MRE's (600 or so cases @ $56 a case for a variety pack totaling $33,600), and at least 3,600 gallons of bottled water (I don't even want to think about this, but at .5 cents a gallon that's $180. Assuming they can get it for 1/2 a penny a gallon! That's about as plausible as a penny a paintball!)
$39,780 in just those costs, not to mention shipping it all to the events around the country. Getting them to Brazil won't be cheap either. Now let's get the air fills promised (but not totally provided), the first aid / medical response that should be on site for an event this large, the cost of purchasing or renting ATV's, Rafts, power tools, BUYING 100+ laptops because you KNOW someone will shoot at and wreck a laptop or fifty, the cost of 1200 "zip drives" per event (off the subject, but WHO IN THE HECK uses "Zip Drives" anymore?!?!? A USB thumbnail drive holds more, is smaller, and less likely to snap in half if you roll on it!), hiring referees to manage this chaos (1200 players, at LEAST 120 refs if not 300-500 for 72 hours), buying 100 "team HQ's" per event because you KNOW they're going to get trashed, security force to keep the players honest off the field or to just deal with problems that happen PLUS everyone gets a RAP4 T68 SMG... The concept is more than a little intimidating.
Couple all of this with a lack of a face on the website. Nowhere on the parent site is there a single name of who "Operation Paintball Island" is run by. The only mention of who they are is an address and a buisness LLC, in Florida. I went as far as to hit up the Florida Department of State, Division of Corporations, and I DID find them as a registered company. but I hit a dead end there. The names of the people given as owners don't ring any bells for me. And for $1299 entry fee and no guarantee I'll last more than 20 minutes, I want to know who I'm giving my money to.
Oh yeah, and the $1,000,000 prize? Well, don't bet on it. Remember what I said earlier about racing and how prize money works? Read this carefully.
(source)
Translation, unless 10,000 people play, $1,000,000 isn't going to be rewarded. If less than 5,000 people play, the big event won't even happen. But there's a plan for that too!
(source)
So, to translate, they need 5000 people (@ $1299 each for $6,495,000 total incoming money), roughly 416 - 500 teams, or they're not even going to do the finals in Brazil. And if you win the qualifier, you can split $50,000 amongst 10-12 people and add $3000 for your efforts. So you could potentially cash out at $8,000 per person if you field a minimal 10 player team. Not bad, but it's not the possible $1 mil split of $100,000 per person now, is it?
So is it a scam? Depends on how you look at it. The event may actually take place in "phase one", in which case they can argue that it's not a scam because they actually did it. However, the lack of information, the lack of a published rulebook before they take entry fees, the lack of direct answers to direct questions, and the dishonest nature of how they're handling the information they're telling us leads me to believe they're being less than honest. So I feel that it's a scam on the basis that they're not revealing all the information we need to make an informed opinion. And what information they are releasing is spotty, at best.
It also occurs to me that the organizers have probably never run a paintball event, or any large scale event involving thousands of people. Logistically, a game that is "goggles on" for 22 hours a day is a nightmare. People need medication, they need to eat, they need to do things you simply can not do with your facemask on. People also need things like insulin shots (and all the gear to keep insulin cold), inhalers, various medications, epipens and more. Without safe areas for people to do things like this, bad situations can arise. Plus players who attempt semi-skilled and dangerous tasks while possibly being under fire (driving an ATV, filling a Co2 bottle or operating power tools) are just asking for a life-threatening injury.
Since there are no rules published other than the 31 on the forum (which includes "Players must remain fully clothed during the tournament."), it's impossible to know if they've even accounted for the human element of large gatherings. So I'm assuming that they simply have not. Tournament paintball rules are quite extensive for a reason, they try to plan for most things and have a procedure for them. This event doesn't even have published rules concerning what counts as an elimination, let alone what they will do if a player needs medical assistance!
It's been argued that they're not going for the paintball market as much as they're going for the "milsim", "military" and "militia" markets. This may be the case, but several scenario paintball teams have expressed interest in attending this event sight unseen. The "carrot" of a cool million dollars is a pretty strong draw, and if you're still going to go, you should know what you're getting yourself into.
It's my opinion that they are trying to turn a fast buck in something that most people will call a scam once it's over. "Phase 2" will more than likely not happen, unless 5000 paintball players over the age of 18 with $1299 and no need for an e-gun or car payment buy into the event knowing they might be done in the first 30 minutes. I do believe they will get one "qualifier" to run, but probably not more than that. So if you're going to the qualifier thinking you're on your way to a million bucks, then you are going to be "scammed".
Oh, and just for fun, if you read the site you'll find out that out of your entry fee, $25 is not refundable as it's a processing charge. So if, say, 1200 people register, and the event doesn't happen at all, "Paintball Island Adventures" pockets $30,000 for all this hype.
Makes you think, doesn't it?
Proving this won't be short, you've been warned. But if you intend on plunking down a lot of money to go to an event, you should be aware of what you're getting yourself involved with. So let's begin with the information that we have for the event. A website with a web-bot baited but unlinked to anything else front page but accessible pages inside. A listing of prizes, a "debriefing", a registration page, a Q&A and a "terms and conditions" page. As of this typing, the rules are not available on the main event site, but a list of 31 "rules" have been published on a forum hosted by one of the event sponsors (RAP 4).
We also know what the event staff have said on the forums, which is incredibly minimal. The qualifiers (phase 1) is in the US, and is a 3 day / 2 night event. The finals (phase 2) is on an island in Brazil, and is going to be a "week long" And some of the event structure has been answered in the Q&A section, but we'll get to that later. For the most part, the OPI staff have been surprisingly tight lipped about directly answering some key questions on the forums.
So much of what the pre-registered players have to do is read the information given, and piece together what the tournament is going to be like. Unfortunately, most players see the prize and never read what it's going to take to get there. Which is why the long deconstruction is necessary. Let's begin with the base announcement of the event.
Though the initial registration fee is $1299, when the website opens this Friday, March 23, the registration fee will be discounted to $899. This price will last until April 30. Then it will go up to $1299.
Included in the registration package is the T68 SMG, worth $350. The registration also includes paintballs, food, water and some equipment that will be used in the tournament.
(source)
So what we know so far, the event will cost $1299 after May, or $899 before. They also say in the website that they will include paint, free "CO2" (nothing about compressed air) and "some equipment" for the game. A lot of people have already jumped on the bandwagon saying that the money spent includes all the paint you're going to need. But then a further reading of the so-called "debriefing" on the main event website gives more insight.
Paintball Island Adventures will also supply some paintball equipment and gear for each player/squad depending on availability. Below is a list of what Paintball Island Adventures will provide.
*250 paintballs per day, per player.
*Cobra Microtalk FRS /GMRS Radio (one per player)
*Bunkers (set of 2 per base camp)
*Motion Sensor (one per base camp)
*Canopy (one per base location)
*Laptop Computer (one per base location)
*Zip storage drive (one per player)
*Infrared Trip Wire w/alarm (one per base camp)
*Smoke Grenades (3 per team)
*Water (3 Gallons per player)
*Meals Ready to Eat (MRE’s) (3 per day)
*Toilet paper (enough for each team)
*Claymore trip wire mines (two per team)
*Pressure Activated Landmines (2 per team)
(source)
So now we know all about the "all paint provided". Although the information about this is patchy, one of several anomalies on the website. They say 250 paintballs a day, but in their "Q&A" section they say that each player gets 500 paintballs total. According to the debriefing, you should be getting 750 paintballs total. They also say in the Q&A section that they provide CO2, "HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO MISSIONS OR PLACED IN OPEN AREA VULERNABLE TO ATTACK. AS A RESULT, YOU SHOULD BRING A GOOD SUPPLY OF AIR OF YOUR OWN TO GET YOU STARTED" They also state that the event is 3 days, 2 nights "living in the woods". It can be assumed that the finals will be a week of the same.
Plus they've stated all the resources you get for $1299. MRE's, Water, all the TP they think you'll need, a laptop for the team, zip drives, and several other resources split among your team. Each team consists of 10-12 players, but there's no commentary about how that's going to work. Will teams only be able to field 10 players, or 12 players? It's never said in the rules.
A lot of people are already speculating about cheating. And the OPI people already answered that. they have four points of how they will stop it, but here's the one that got me reading more.
We will be using electronic technology to monitor players. This involves the use of strike sensors on the rear and frontal area of the player's torso area. If the the area is hit, the sensor goes off. Their is a transmission sent to the Command Center and the player who has been hit is immediately identified as ELIMINATED. The sensor is designed to light up and make an audible alarm so that everyone knows what happened.
Unless they've got some of the best sensors in the world, or technology that can tell one type of impact from another, this isn't going to fly. If you fall on your belly or back up into a tree, sensor fires and you're out. Oh, and by the language, bouncers count if you hit the strike area.
And just by reading the language of what's available, I get a feeling that the paintball crowd is going to be REALLY angry when they figure out that once you're hit, you're done for the event. Not the mission, the EVENT. It's written all over the site, if you watch how the language is used.
Squads will continue to play the game and be eligible for the prize as long as one member of the squad is alive to finish the tournament. The tournament will end when one squad (be it the whole squad or a sole surviving member) completes the final mission. Every player on the winning team takes part in the prize, regardless of when they were eliminated, as long as they are not disqualified.
(source)
And the only four points in the rulebook written about eliminated players are as follows :
( 5 )Players can not discharge any weapon under their control after being eliminated from the tournament.
( 6 ) Players who have been eliminated from the tournament must walk with hands up after being eliminated and chant “dead man walking” as they make their way to a safe house on the playing field.
( 7 ) Eliminated players must wait at the safe house until picked up by the Paintball Island Adventures security team.
( 8 )Eliminated players are not permitted to communicate with squad mates in any manner.
Source
It's not said outright anywhere, but the language of the debriefing, the Q&A and all the other information available implies that team members hit by paint will be "eliminated" from the game. Not from a mission, but from the GAME. What's been published is what you see above, and a brief mentioning of wounds in the Q&A section. And by saying "a sole surviving member" it gives me more than just the slight impression that when you're gone, you're gone. Plus the language of missions leads me to believe that when you're hit, you're done.
Then I see a logistical problem as well. The game mechanics are 22 hours on, 2 hours off. It runs from 7 PM to 5 PM, with no game stoppage before that. Meaning that you are a live player for 22 hours a day, if you're sleeping, if your going to the bathroom, if you're taking your medications or if you're getting medical attention, you're live. There seems to be no "safe area" built into the field of play. Again, from the information given :
Protection: Squads must always protect their base. If a squad's base is invaded, casualities will result and most likely, a breach in mission confidentiality will result. This will leave surving team members at risk.
Ambush: Squads that have infilrated the base camp of other squads will obtain the infiltrated teams mission information. This will provide the infiltrating squad with superior intel and the upper hand. Teams that have superior intel can ambush other teams.
Invasion: Teams should be prepared to infiltrate the base camp of other teams to steel their mission information.
(source)
So they supply MRE's. But if everywhere is a hot spot, including your base, there's no guarantee you can eat them without risking losing your eyes when you lift your goggles/mask. If there's no "goggles off" area, it's unsafe to eat food or prepare it. Unless you play without a face mask, and that's not much better. Hope you like sleeping in your Spectras.
Just this alone has me more than a little skeptical. There is no official rule sheet on the main website, but they're set up to take money with several credit cards and paypal! I know a lot of you members don't remember the old tournaments back in the day, but there's a reason that the rulebook is printed months in advance. Do you take your car into the shop, give them $500 down and a promise of another $800 and say "Just fix what's wrong." NO! You get an estimate, you learn what's wrong with it, you know what's going to happen! The same think applies here! And frankly, anyone who's going to take my money before they show me what I'm buying scares me.
The lack of published rules scares me more. We all know that people bend the rules. We also know they break the rules with frightening regularity. But there's only 31 rules, and none of them cover things like "no climbing trees" or "no shooting computers" or "you may not take paintballs off of eliminated players" or "no physical contact". They do say the chrony limit is 300 FPS, thankfully. And they have a rule about urinating on the field (it's not allowed, btw). But pretty much beyond gun velocity, anything goes. There are no published "nuts and bolts" rules that actually describe game procedure, which is vital to know how the event is going to be run. And when you get 1200 people in one place, someone will have a far more devious mind than you do.
1200 people? In one event? I'm ahead of myself. Let's talk about financing this thing. A game like this is going to have to make one heck of a pretty penny to cover $1,000,000 for a grand prize, right? So let's play a game called "follow the money".
I'm going to be fair. I'm aware that many other sports use a similar kind of prize payout as this event is proposing. Motocross, for example, it's routine for the prize money to come from the participants that arrive on site that morning. As such, a "guaranteed top prize" is not guaranteed unless specific conditions happen. So let's break down the best case scenario for the OPI event.
At $1299 per player (forget the pre-pay discount, I want to give them the full benefit of the doubt here) they need about 770 people total to pony up to just barely cover the $1 mil. So that's roughly 64 teams of 12 each, and that will just about cover the grand prize. That's over the entire series of "phase 1".
They also say that each qualifier winner gets $50,000. So If they have 10 qualifiers like they say they want, that's $500,000. That's another 38 people per event.
So they need at least 38 people per qualifier to meet the qualifier prize (3-4 teams per qualifier), and another 77 average per qualifier on top of that to cover the grand prize (77 X 10 = 770, so another 6-7 full teams) so each qualifier will need a minimum of 115 players (9-12 teams roughly) to just barely cover promised prize money at the top end price of $1299! (at a minimum of 10 qualifiers, the rules say they can go up to 20, but let's stick to 10)
Do you think that 115 people will cough up $1299 to possibly be waxed in the first 30 minutes of play, then sit on their tails for the rest of the weekend? Do you think that 115 different people will show up 10 times, even when you go around the country? Do you think more than that would do it? Do you think they'll get the 100 teams (1000 - 1200 people) maximum every qualifier? They have the event formatted for 100 teams per event (source), so they're prepared for 1200 people per event, so they say.
But before I get further into that, let's talk about building the "sets" they want. They promise that they'll have "Watch Towers, Storage Facilities, Abandoned Vehicles (military and civilian), Military Compounds, Medical Facilities, Ammunition Facilities, Junk Yards, Communications Facilities, Abandoned Living Shelters, Garages, Boat Houses, Abandoned Prisons, Abandoned Airports/Helicopter Pads" And all of that, short of going to an island or parcel of land that was a military base, has to be built. And that takes even more money. Money up front. They may have some very powerful backers, I don't know.
PLUS the bonus stuff : "During the tournament, various tools and vehicles will be used. Some of these tools/vehicles used will include: Metal Detectors, Infrared Security Devices, Shovels, Power Tools, All Terrain Vehicles (ATV’s), Jet Ski’s, Motorized Rafts" And by the language, this may be in both the qualifiers and in the finals. More money up front, plus the potential problem of letting untrained people use things like ATV's, power tools, Jet Ski's and anything with the potential to injure a person. And all these will be in play with live players. Imagine the disaster of someone using a power tool, then suddenly getting shot at.
Then, on the main website, they also state that every player will be issued several things "depending on availability" basis. An FRS radio, a zip drive, MRE's and water, and so on. Each team gets a computer, 4 mines (2 pressure sensitive, 2 claymores), 3 smoke grenades, IR detectors and so on. That takes more money, considering that they expect the qualifiers and the finals to have a maximum of 100 teams and 1000-1200 players PER EVENT. (source), so that's 100 laptops, up to 1200 zip drives, 200 claymores, 300 grenades and so on for each of the qualifiers, AND for the finals, and so on.
And, HOW are they going to get 100 teams to play in the finals when there's only 2-20 qualifiers? Simple. You can register to play in the finals even if you don't win a qualifier. "The total entry fee during registration period two (for the finals on the island) is $2999.00. Players who register for the tournament during registration period two are registering to play in Phase Two (the finals) only." "Players who do not advance to Phase Two automatically may register for Phase Two after being eliminated from Phase One." (source)
Meaning that you play the qualifier, and if you don't make it you can just cough up $2999 per person and play in the finals anyway. That's over and above the $1299 you paid to play in the first one. and depending on how you read it, you may have to play a qualifier to pay to play in the finals, and you can't play in only the finals.
Ok, so 10 teams get a free ride (Free entry, and according to the site, will travel for free to the island but no mention of how they get to Brazil). The other 90 expected teams spend $2999 per player to play in the finals, AFTER paying $1299 to play in a qualifier. That's another $35,988 per 12 player team, $3,238,920 if 90 teams suck it up and go for it.
So let's review. IF they max out ten events, and I MEAN EVERY QUALIFIER EVENT, they get $1299 from each player, up to 100 teams (1200 players) per event, $1,558,800 per event in raw earnings. $15,588,000 for 10 events. Then another $3,238,920 for the finals. $18,826,920 of profit. So what do you get for your money?
The Q&A talks about the event length, 3 days 2 nights. the finals are a "week long", so a week would be 7 days 6 nights, but let's focus on the qualifiers. They issue each player a set amount of resources for their $1299. 500 rounds per player (or 250 a day, depending on which page you're looking at on the site), 9 MRE's, 3 gallons of water (the recommended daily input for an average, healthy adult is 13 cups, 104 fluid ounces or .8 gallons of water per day, and that's if you're not being active!) And without a comprehensive rulebook, there's no way to tell if you can bring your own water or resources other than more "Co2".
Just thinking of it now, since you can't bring pressurized air tanks on an airplane, how do you bring more Co2 to Brazil? And while I'm on gear, on the registration form they ask what caliber of paintball you want. So I get a feeling that .40 / .44 caliber paintballs will be used.
So, lemme see here, 1200 players per event tops using 500 balls a piece, 600,000 paintballs of varying size (300 cases of paint, and at a penny a ball thats $6,000 of paint, assuming they can get it for a penny a ball!), 7200 MRE's (600 or so cases @ $56 a case for a variety pack totaling $33,600), and at least 3,600 gallons of bottled water (I don't even want to think about this, but at .5 cents a gallon that's $180. Assuming they can get it for 1/2 a penny a gallon! That's about as plausible as a penny a paintball!)
$39,780 in just those costs, not to mention shipping it all to the events around the country. Getting them to Brazil won't be cheap either. Now let's get the air fills promised (but not totally provided), the first aid / medical response that should be on site for an event this large, the cost of purchasing or renting ATV's, Rafts, power tools, BUYING 100+ laptops because you KNOW someone will shoot at and wreck a laptop or fifty, the cost of 1200 "zip drives" per event (off the subject, but WHO IN THE HECK uses "Zip Drives" anymore?!?!? A USB thumbnail drive holds more, is smaller, and less likely to snap in half if you roll on it!), hiring referees to manage this chaos (1200 players, at LEAST 120 refs if not 300-500 for 72 hours), buying 100 "team HQ's" per event because you KNOW they're going to get trashed, security force to keep the players honest off the field or to just deal with problems that happen PLUS everyone gets a RAP4 T68 SMG... The concept is more than a little intimidating.
Couple all of this with a lack of a face on the website. Nowhere on the parent site is there a single name of who "Operation Paintball Island" is run by. The only mention of who they are is an address and a buisness LLC, in Florida. I went as far as to hit up the Florida Department of State, Division of Corporations, and I DID find them as a registered company. but I hit a dead end there. The names of the people given as owners don't ring any bells for me. And for $1299 entry fee and no guarantee I'll last more than 20 minutes, I want to know who I'm giving my money to.
Oh yeah, and the $1,000,000 prize? Well, don't bet on it. Remember what I said earlier about racing and how prize money works? Read this carefully.
The actual prize awarded to winning teams is contingent on the number of players that play in each event of tournament. The maximum cash prize will be awarded in full if total tournament participation is at least 10,000 players. If less than 10,000 players play in the tournament, the actual cash prize distribution will decrease in proportion to the number of players who actually play in the tournament. Prize money will decrease 10% for every 500 players below 10,000. The cash prizes will not be reduced by more than 50% of the maximum, regardless of how many players play in the tournament,however, the tournament will not take place and will be cancelled if the total number of registrants is less than 5000 as of December 31, 2007. Once again, if the tournament is cancelled for any reason by Paintball Island Adventures, all registration fees paid to Paintball Island Adventures will be refunded to the customer, less the $25 processing fee included in the registration.
(source)
Translation, unless 10,000 people play, $1,000,000 isn't going to be rewarded. If less than 5,000 people play, the big event won't even happen. But there's a plan for that too!
In the event that Phase One of the tournament occurs, but Phase Two does not, all players that win a Phase One event will receive the maximum cash value of the Phase Two entry fee ($3000) in substitution of free entry into Phase Two of the tournament.
(source)
So, to translate, they need 5000 people (@ $1299 each for $6,495,000 total incoming money), roughly 416 - 500 teams, or they're not even going to do the finals in Brazil. And if you win the qualifier, you can split $50,000 amongst 10-12 people and add $3000 for your efforts. So you could potentially cash out at $8,000 per person if you field a minimal 10 player team. Not bad, but it's not the possible $1 mil split of $100,000 per person now, is it?
So is it a scam? Depends on how you look at it. The event may actually take place in "phase one", in which case they can argue that it's not a scam because they actually did it. However, the lack of information, the lack of a published rulebook before they take entry fees, the lack of direct answers to direct questions, and the dishonest nature of how they're handling the information they're telling us leads me to believe they're being less than honest. So I feel that it's a scam on the basis that they're not revealing all the information we need to make an informed opinion. And what information they are releasing is spotty, at best.
It also occurs to me that the organizers have probably never run a paintball event, or any large scale event involving thousands of people. Logistically, a game that is "goggles on" for 22 hours a day is a nightmare. People need medication, they need to eat, they need to do things you simply can not do with your facemask on. People also need things like insulin shots (and all the gear to keep insulin cold), inhalers, various medications, epipens and more. Without safe areas for people to do things like this, bad situations can arise. Plus players who attempt semi-skilled and dangerous tasks while possibly being under fire (driving an ATV, filling a Co2 bottle or operating power tools) are just asking for a life-threatening injury.
Since there are no rules published other than the 31 on the forum (which includes "Players must remain fully clothed during the tournament."), it's impossible to know if they've even accounted for the human element of large gatherings. So I'm assuming that they simply have not. Tournament paintball rules are quite extensive for a reason, they try to plan for most things and have a procedure for them. This event doesn't even have published rules concerning what counts as an elimination, let alone what they will do if a player needs medical assistance!
It's been argued that they're not going for the paintball market as much as they're going for the "milsim", "military" and "militia" markets. This may be the case, but several scenario paintball teams have expressed interest in attending this event sight unseen. The "carrot" of a cool million dollars is a pretty strong draw, and if you're still going to go, you should know what you're getting yourself into.
It's my opinion that they are trying to turn a fast buck in something that most people will call a scam once it's over. "Phase 2" will more than likely not happen, unless 5000 paintball players over the age of 18 with $1299 and no need for an e-gun or car payment buy into the event knowing they might be done in the first 30 minutes. I do believe they will get one "qualifier" to run, but probably not more than that. So if you're going to the qualifier thinking you're on your way to a million bucks, then you are going to be "scammed".
Oh, and just for fun, if you read the site you'll find out that out of your entry fee, $25 is not refundable as it's a processing charge. So if, say, 1200 people register, and the event doesn't happen at all, "Paintball Island Adventures" pockets $30,000 for all this hype.
Makes you think, doesn't it?
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Labels: paintball scams
posted by Rob "Tyger" Rubin at
Monday, April 02, 2007
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